Comment: Three things that could help save Christmas from shortages Published on: 16 September 2021 Writing for The Conversation, Dr Jas Kalra discusses the causes of supply chain shortages and identifies three things which could ease the situation. , and , When problems with food shortages in the UK first started making headlines over the summer, the government played down the seriousness of the situation. It the UK had a 鈥渞obust and resilient food supply chain鈥�, referring to 鈥渋solated incidences鈥� of problems within the system. Several months later, it looks anything but. The chairman of Tesco, John Allan, supermarket shelves could be empty at Christmas, while some senior figures if the shortages in supermarkets could even be permanent. There that toy shops and other non-food retailers are struggling to get enough stock into their warehouses to prepare for the Christmas rush, that there could be a crunch coming in November once festive shopping gets underway. There have already been reports of some people to panic-buy and stockpile, and this could clearly spiral later in the year. And all this before reflecting on the effects of , which has left some to put food on the table this year. So what exactly is happening on ground, and can it be overcome in time for Christmas? COVID and Brexit The pandemic has contributed to the shortages in a number of ways. Staff shortages at international ports due to pandemic restrictions, together with dating back to the blockage of the Suez Canal earlier this year, have for the global shipping industry to satisfy the resurgence in demand. Air freight has been hit by reduced capacity too. In the UK, the 鈥減ingdemic鈥� many staff from the workforce because it requires them to self-isolate if they get a positive PCR test, with over 26,000 new COVID cases a day being recorded at present. were a particularly noticeable casualty during the peak of the pingdemic in the summer, and are still likely being affected. Then there is Brexit. many who warned that Brexit would cause a mass exodus of EU nationals, and the initial evidence is now in. A fifth of the UK鈥檚 current shortage of 100,000 lorry drivers EU nationals no longer having work visas. Thanks to the UK trade deal with the EU, truck drivers are not on the UK鈥檚 new that determines who is entitled to a work visa. Interestingly, driving instructors are part of the UK government鈥檚 skilled worker visa scheme while drivers aren鈥檛. Brexit has also created major problems for UK farming, which relies heavily on migrant workers. , weekly chicken production is down by 10% and Christmas turkey production is facing a 20% reduction. Due to both Brexit and COVID, in the UK have topped 1 million for the first time since records began. With much talk of companies offering more money and incentives to fill roles, a found that one third of businesses were expecting to have to raise pay by at least 2% in the next year. This is likely to entail disputes that could make staff shortages worse. Some lorry drivers are strike action after being offered a 1% wage increase. Finally, Brexit and new government regulation are contributing to food-price inflation. A recent study estimated that new regulations will increase consumers鈥� food bills by in the next few years. Process and planet issues Supply chains were an accident waiting to happen in a pandemic. They are primarily designed for efficiency, with producers having outsourced important aspects of their operations and reduced the number of suppliers per product to as few as possible. The system has also been built around , where companies strive to achieve 鈥渮ero inventory鈥� and 鈥渏ust-in-time鈥� production. This all saves money, but companies lose control and visibility of what they produce and import as a result. When a shock like Brexit or COVID-19 comes along, it only takes one or two supply problems for things to grind to a halt. Meanwhile, the effect of climate change on food shortages is being ignored in the current debate. From the grain heartland of Argentina to the tomato belt of California to the pork hub of China, extreme weather events in 2021 food supplies and sharply . What could make a difference? Clearly, some of these issues cannot be improved in time for this festive season, so we have to be realistic that not all products may be available when we want them. But there are some things that could ease the situation: 1. Visa changes To make the best of things, retailers have been calling on the UK government to help with worker shortages, but the response has been disappointing. The government to grant visas to allow in more migrant workers, for example. An urgent rethink is needed with regards to who constitutes a key worker and the relevant visa rules. 2. Incentives for lorry drivers Meanwhile, some employers have been incentivising new drivers with and of between 拢1,000 and 拢2,000. Sadly, others increasing drivers鈥� hours without improving their pay. But clearly the low-wage, precarious employment model is not working for lorry drivers, with many lured away from general supermarket logistics to work in better conditions in . To stay competitive, logistics companies offering new deals that include not only better hours and pay but incentives like healthcare benefits, and a more clearly defined route for drivers to rise to senior roles like driving assessor or transport hiring manager. 3. Local shopping Consumers can also play a role in taking away some of the strain by buying local. This has been a in recent years, with initiatives such as fruit-and-vegetable box schemes and farmers鈥� markets changing not only what we eat, but where we get it from. Buying local may ease some pressures on international supply chains by reducing our dependence on supermarkets in winter 2021. Buying and ordering early to avoid disappointment will also help the system to cope by better understanding demand patterns. Beyond this Christmas, there are various longer-term moves that are important, ranging from attractive apprenticeship-training for key jobs to developing initiatives to make the supply chain more local and less wedded to efficiency at all costs. For now, however, the system needs a band aid. We appear to be about two months away from a crisis, and everyone must put a shoulder to the wheel to minimise the effects. , Assistant Professor in Supply Chain Management, and , Professor of Supply Chain Innovation, This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the . 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