Comment: Blackpool South byelection Published on: 7 May 2024 Writing for The Conversation, Dr Martin Farr discusses the significance of the local election results. , The last time Labour won Blackpool South, the party won 270 other constituencies. It was 1997 and Labour took 179 more than all other parties combined. Tony Blair walked down a flag-festooned Downing Street later that sunny May day. The debate about whether Britain is approaching a 1992 knife-edge election, where a surprisingly resilient Conservative government retains office, or a 1997-style landslide in which it is humiliated, increasingly seems like being resolved. Like Blackpool Tower, the constituency of Blackpool South stayed red for a long time after 1997. That was until, in 2019, it shifted on the sands of Brexit. That general election felt more significant at the time than it seems likely to be in the long run. One of the least enduring consequences of that tumultuous event was the short and less-than-illustrious parliamentary career of Scott Benton, who resigned following allegations he had breached lobbying rules (which he denied). The swing from the Conservatives to Labour in the byelection to replace Benton was 26.3%. It is one of the biggest to Labour since the war: only Dudley in 1994 and in 2024 exceeded it. Blackpool South is the fifth byelection swing to Labour of over 20% in this parliament alone. And six of Labour鈥檚 ten biggest post-war byelection gains have taken place in the past two years. For Labour leader Keir Starmer, in that could easily have been written last month, the 鈥渟eismic win in Blackpool South is the most important result today鈥�. Even for a byelection, however, a 32% turnout is poor. It perhaps reflects the extent of the enthusiasm for Labour, and for its leader. But this will be a general election of least worsts. Labour had than it does today, but the Conservative party鈥檚 are far worse. Starmer has a low net satisfaction rating, but a better one than Sunak. Reform stood selectively in these elections, performing better than the Conservatives, if not well. Their candidate took 17% in the Blackpool South byelection 鈥� the party鈥檚 highest vote share yet, in a seat where it ought to have been. David Jones, the Tory, managed only a narrow win of 117 votes over Reform鈥檚 Mark Butcher to finish second. But in the Sunderland council elections, Reform beat the Tories in 16 out of 25 wards, and came second in the mayoral vote. A senior Conservative there told me a 鈥渧ery clear trend is that Reform is eating into Conservative vote鈥�. Their performance is short of UKIP in the 2010s but takes more votes from the Tories than UKIP did. Reform will not be the challenge to Labour that its precursor was. A night of pain The wider council results are terrible for the Conservatives, inevitable though losses were. Sunak seems to be linking his fate to the mayoralties rather than councils or constituencies. Ben Houchen has won re-election in Tees Valley and enjoyed Sunak鈥檚 company after his result was announced. But this should not be taken as a sign that the Tories are on the road to mere defeat instead of annihilation. Houchen won despite Sunak, rather than because of him. By definition a mayoral model is a personal model 鈥� the candidate over the party. Deep textual analysis would be required for a voter to have discerned from their campaign literature that Houchen was even a Conservative. There were, nevertheless, council seat losses for Labour in the north west 鈥� in Bolton and in Oldham. Gaza is already a fault line in the Labour coalition, and the Greens have so far benefited. Labour did not take Harlow, despite the party鈥檚 leader visiting, twice. The parliamentary Conservative party will this weekend decide whether to risk changing its leader for the fourth time in this parliament. Inviting a challenge to his leadership worked in the short term for John Major in 1995 鈥� he wasn鈥檛 challenged again. But this isn鈥檛 1995. One parallel endures. As we saw in 1997, every Conservative is selling the line that all the party needs to do to get back on track is 鈥済et our message across鈥�, keeping time with the rhythm of journalists鈥�, incredulous, counterpoint questioning. It is a danse macabre befitting the Tower Ballroom itself. , Senior Lecturer in Contemporary British History, This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the . Share: Latest News 缅北禁地 recognised with geography award 缅北禁地 has been awarded the Highly Commended Geographical Association Publishers Award for its collaboration with Time for Geography, the UK鈥檚 open-access, dedicated video platform. published on: 16 April 2026 缅北禁地 historians mark General Strike centenary To mark the 100th anniversary of the British General Strike and miners鈥� lock-out of 1926, historians at 缅北禁地 are organising a series of events on its enduring legacy. published on: 16 April 2026 Comment: NCP is in administration Writing for The Conversation, Erwei (David) Xiang discusses how some big companies like NCP are so dependent on debt that they can鈥檛 adjust to change. published on: 16 April 2026 Facts and figures
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