Comment: Reform threat is unique in UK political history Published on: 30 May 2025 Writing for The Conversation, Martin Farr discusses the threat to both the Labour and Conservative parties from a buoyant Reform Party. , Labour鈥檚 former shadow chancellor John McDonnell has that Keir Starmer鈥檚 government has driven 鈥渁 knife into the heart of what I believed Labour stood for鈥� and called for party members, unions and MPs to take back control. The text was McDonnell鈥檚, but the pretext was Nigel Farage. Earlier in the week, the Reform leader moved his tanks on to Labour鈥檚 lawn by promising to reverse the government鈥檚 withdrawal of winter fuel payments to pensioners, and , a week after Starmer had committed the most perilous of political allusions: evoking the language of Enoch Powell over . Starmer has been singed (as was ) by playing with Powell鈥檚 incendiarism. The disingenuousness of denials that so irregular a phrase as was not Starmer dog-whistling marked another low. At the centre of Labour鈥檚 dilemma is political mutability; how those most elemental, political categories 鈥渞ight鈥� and 鈥渓eft鈥� have blurred into indistinction. Reform UK were ostensibly of the former 鈥� nationalist, individualist, authoritarian 鈥� but now parade the sacraments of the latter: nationalisation, collectivism, welfarism. Betrayal narratives follow Labour leaders as night does day, but Sir Keir Starmer鈥檚 inconstancy and inability to offer mitigation by counter-narrative at least demonstrates his fidelity to his political hero Harold Wilson. His ministers in the 1960s and 1970s despaired at their electorally successful prime minister鈥檚 apparent lack of defining . Of the many issues Reform UK raises, the most intriguing is also the least answerable: individual agency. It will never be known whether Britain would still be in the EU had Farage not survived his 2010 , but it鈥檚 more probable than not. Similarly, had Farage withdrawn, as he promised, from British politics to more lucrative pursuits across the Atlantic, the existential threat to both the Labour government and the Conservative party would have gone with him. But Farage stayed 鈥� and Reform is now a threat of a different order to his previous vehicles. They were significant 鈥� UKIP with Brexit; the Brexit party providing Boris Johnson鈥檚 2019 victory 鈥� without being serious. They lacked policies (or even policy processes), professionalism, personnel (UKIP was the only party to of the BNP because it was the only party to have need to). Reform is now at the tipping point 鈥� both financially and electorally 鈥� of seriousness. It runs councils. It has mayors. Its triumph in the Runcorn by-election demonstrated discipline, and the importance of a sound candidate. When parties split In their public personas, Farage and Starmer are antitheses; the one glib, the other grave; the one with too much personality, the other too little. But charismatic politicians who 鈥渕ake the weather鈥� can also break the party: Farage most recently and repeatedly. But before him split the Liberals in 1886 and the Unionists in 1903 and again split the Liberals in 1916. Oswald Mosley caused for Labour in 1931 and David Owen left Labour in the 1980s to form the (SDP), which he also later split. In 1981, the SDP achieved (in alliance with the Liberals) a of the kind currently being enjoyed by Reform. And in the 1983 general election the SDP/Liberal Alliance won only 675,000 fewer votes than Labour. But thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system, the Alliance won 186 fewer seats. Labour鈥檚 geographical concentration saved it; the Alliance came second all over the country. In 2024, first past the post delivered what its advocates love, and its critics hate: a clear, and unfair, outcome. Labour won two-thirds of the seats on one-third of the votes. It was the . Britain鈥檚 new multi-party politics may deliver a multi-party parliament at the next election, but through an electoral system designed 鈥� insofar as it was designed 鈥� for two. With Reform set to breach the 30% , safe seats will be fewer and farther between; marginal seats the norm. This would present a challenge for a Labour leader much more nimble than Starmer. His dilemma is devilish: ape Reform and yield urban voters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats; repudiate and see the rebuilt red wall razed. There are other places for progressives to go. Indeed, there may soon be another: a . McDonnell 鈥� who already sits as an independent, having had the Labour whip last year 鈥� may see it as a lifeboat. Kemi Badenoch 鈥� and Robert Jenrick, her most likely usurper 鈥� face a strikingly similar problem. Responding to Reform in kind will cede affluent voters to the Liberal Democrats. The Conservative party is the most electorally successful in history in part because it never had a challenger on the right. There鈥檚 now another place for conservatives to go. (Or, as it were, to remain.) This is the historically unique threat of Reform. In warning of Farage 鈥� the most consequential politician since Margaret Thatcher 鈥� as a serious threat, Starmer and Badenoch may in overstating augment him, but to not do so is to risk acquiescing. Catastrophising and complacency were evident in 2014, when UKIP came first in the European Parliament elections. Two years later, Britain voted for Brexit. Reform still has somewhat less than fully thought-out, never mind fully-funded, policies. Its talent pool is a puddle. It鈥檚 now in office and will have a record to defend. It鈥檚 dominated by one person, and one who repels as much as he inspires. It鈥檚 still unlikely that in five years鈥� time Farage will be in government, much less prime minister. But it is less unlikely than it was, and is likely to become less unlikely still. , Senior Lecturer in Contemporary British History, This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the . Share: Latest News 缅北禁地 recognised with geography award 缅北禁地 has been awarded the Highly Commended Geographical Association Publishers Award for its collaboration with Time for Geography, the UK鈥檚 open-access, dedicated video platform. published on: 16 April 2026 缅北禁地 historians mark General Strike centenary To mark the 100th anniversary of the British General Strike and miners鈥� lock-out of 1926, historians at 缅北禁地 are organising a series of events on its enduring legacy. published on: 16 April 2026 Comment: NCP is in administration Writing for The Conversation, Erwei (David) Xiang discusses how some big companies like NCP are so dependent on debt that they can鈥檛 adjust to change. published on: 16 April 2026 Facts and figures
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