Comment: The Makerfield result means Labour might have reason to hope

Published on: 19 June 2026

Writing for The Conversation, Martin Farr discusses how the big win in Makerfield for Andy Burnham might give the Labour party reason to hope.

The possible nominative determinism of the Makerfield constituency may prove as significant to political historians as it has been a blessing to newspaper sub-editors crafting puns on 鈥淢akerfield or Breakerfield鈥�.

The immediate futures of Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer were decided in the historic happening of the first UK byelection to effectively elect a prime minister. It was a battle of our times.

Burnham鈥檚 success will make a new administration as it breaks the present one. Prime Minister has been largely an ineffectual one 鈥� of which Burnham, crucially, was not a part.

This may be the moment 鈥� 鈥渢he final chance to change鈥�, as the victorious candidate put it 鈥� that transforms the performance and perception of Labour. But it also demonstrates how profoundly, and rapidly, politics in Britain is changing.

Governing parties don鈥檛 win byelections, and certainly not on swings. Burnham鈥檚 , more than more than that of Reform UK, was unexpectedly emphatic 鈥� a personal triumph.

The momentum behind Reform UK鈥檚 leader, Nigel Farage, has if not stalled then noticeably decelerated. A second seat in the north-west that Reform ought to have won this year, it hasn鈥檛鈥� and this time resoundingly.

Much was down to Labour鈥檚 exceptional candidate 鈥� and Reform鈥檚 . In the May local election, Reform was rampant, of the vote in Makerfield, and Restore Britain didn鈥檛 stand. Last night, Rupert Lowe鈥檚 party .

with politics of such unabashed illiberalism as to make Reform resemble the Liberal Democrats. It is too simplistic to assume that had Restore not stood, its voters would have turned to Reform (and in any case, Burnham would still have won conclusively). But rather than deal in switchers, Restore鈥檚 menace is its appeal to non-voters.

This byelection was not merely a matter of getting someone into parliament to supplant a prime minister. It was intended, and needed to be, a statement.

More than any incumbent party in history, given the unique febrility of politics in 2026, Labour could not hope, much less expect, to win a byelection anywhere. Never competitive in rural constituencies, in cities Labour is prey to the Greens, in towns to Reform and Restore, and in Scotland and Wales to nationalists. ( in the other byelections on the same day, both in Scotland.)

Reform and tactical voting

Ironically, given the central importance of 鈥減lace鈥� in this byelection, Makerfield isn鈥檛 one. A swathe of small towns and bits of larger ones, its identity is regional and emblematic, if not typical, of seats which used in lore to weigh rather than count votes for Labour. However, new parties now appeal in a political marketplace for the disaffected.

Andy Burnham contesting a seat in Greater Manchester was almost the only likely Labour victory. There were more propitious seats, such as Gorton and Denton in February, but a weak Starmer . Weakened further by the May elections, the prime minister was unable to do so a second time for Makerfield.

As it turned out, that initial rebuff has burnished Burnham鈥檚 subsequent success. The greater marginality of Makerfield makes the statement much greater.

Reform鈥檚 rise has been tempered by two otherwise unrelated phenomena. Just as Farage inspires, he also repels: his is a unique talent for encouraging tactical voting (the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green party of just 3.3% in Makerfield suggests as much).

Burnham鈥檚 clearest and most long-term policy 鈥� 鈥� is intended to address the negativity surrounding politics today. The salience of proportional representation has never been greater than in Britain鈥檚 new multi-party politics. With Burnham as prime minister, it is likely to be a Labour manifesto commitment for the first time.

But Burnham鈥檚 undoubted personal popularity provides more questions than answers 鈥� not least, whether a politician who has been highly successfully regionally can translate that record to the national, and international, level.

There is also the question of whether the affability and relatability so integral to his appeal can withstand the vicissitudes of the highest office 鈥� as well as the scepticism, cynicism and increasing impatience of voters. Burnham will soon discover that the quickest way for a popular politician to become an unpopular politician is to become prime minister.

This is not Burnham鈥檚 first attempt to lead Labour. To the political questions of the day in 2010 and 2015, he was not the answer. In the post-New Labour world, Burnham lost to a softer leftist in Ed Miliband. And in the electoral wild west begat by Miliband鈥檚 party reforms, he lost to .

But third time around, Burnham might just be the answer. The fractured multi-party politics of 2026 may respond more favourably to Labour with a leader whom its members and voters actually want to vote for.

Getting Labour鈥檚 vote out next time will be its highest priority. As almost never happens, the turnout in yesterday鈥檚 byelection was higher than in the general election.

Burnham鈥檚 re-election to parliament would always 鈥� to use the word of the age 鈥� change things. The measure would be the scale of his victory. For him to be a serious alternative leader, much less a saviour, the victory needed to be big. It was, and it was also personal.

But whether his appeal is portable will soon be the question. Some in Labour may see in Makerfield, as Churchill did El-Alamein, of victory. It certainly denotes both the beginning of Starmer鈥檚 end, and the end of Burnham鈥檚 beginning.

, Senior Lecturer in Contemporary British History,

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